Every investor call I take eventually circles to the same question: “Should I buy a cabin in the Smokies, or would I make more on the coast?” It is a fair question, and the honest answer is not based on which market sounds prettier in a brochure. It is based on the numbers.

I spent some time pulling current 2026 data on the Smokies and comparing it head-to-head with three of the biggest coastal STR markets people are weighing against us: Outer Banks, Destin, and Gulf Shores. Some of it surprised me. Most of it confirmed what we have been seeing on the ground at Haven for years. The Smokies are not just holding their own. For most owners, they are still the smarter play.

Here is why.

The Headline Numbers

Start with the big three: RevPAR, occupancy, and ADR. These are the only metrics that actually tell you what a property will earn year over year.

The Smokies market is tracking 53 to 58 percent occupancy, with an ADR in the $249 to $331 range depending on property size and location, and RevPAR hovering around $167 to $220. That is healthy by national standards, where the average STR market sits at about 52 percent occupancy.

Now compare that to the coast: Gulf Shores is running 38.9 percent occupancy with a $406 ADR and $169 RevPAR. Annual revenue for the average host lands around $43,737. Destin is similar, with most recent occupancy sitting at 38 percent and an ADR of $251, well below the Florida state average of $476. Outer Banks saw occupancy soften 2.8 percent year over year heading into 2025 and has been on a slow downward trend since.

Higher nightly rates are nice. But if your property is sitting empty nine months out of twelve, the ADR is lipstick on a bad deal. The Smokies flip that math. Lower rate, higher occupancy, more nights booked, more consistent cash flow.

The Seasonality Gap

This is where the coast quietly loses most investors, and most of them do not see it coming.

Destin swings from 79 percent occupancy in July to 20 percent in January. Summer averages 72 percent, winter drops to 22 percent. Gulf Shores goes from $9,634 in monthly revenue at peak to $2,630 in low season. That is not a dip. That is a cliff.

The Smokies have their own seasonality, no question. October is our revenue peak — properties at $6,538 per month at 77.4 percent occupancy, and January and February pull back below 36 percent. But we have five distinct demand seasons, not one: spring break, summer, fall foliage (our biggest), Thanksgiving week, and Christmas through New Year. That is five revenue waves across the calendar instead of one giant summer spike followed by six dead months.

For a property owner, that matters more than you might think. Lenders care about it. Insurance actuaries care about it. And most importantly, your cash flow cares about it. Predictable monthly income beats a feast-or-famine calendar every time.

The Insurance Problem Nobody Talks About

Coastal brochures leave this part out.

Barrier island and Gulf-front properties in Florida are paying about $7,000 a year in insurance right now, roughly double the county average, and that is before a major storm event. Coastal homeowners across the Gulf and Atlantic are paying an estimated $4 billion more in insurance than inland owners just for hurricane wind coverage. Many coastal second homes stack homeowners, wind, and flood policies, and the combined premium can rival an entire month of peak-season rent.

Worse, the market is tightening. Major national carriers have pulled out of Florida’s high-risk zones entirely. Finding quality coverage at a reasonable rate is getting harder, not easier.

Now look at the Smokies. We do not have hurricane exposure. We do not stack wind and flood policies. A cabin owner here is paying a fraction of what a comparable coastal property pays for insurance, and underwriters are not running for the exits. When you run the full P&L, not just revenue, but revenue minus insurance, minus storm-related maintenance, minus higher debt service on premium-priced coastal inventory. The Smokies number starts looking a lot better.

The Regulatory Picture

Sevier County requires an annual STR permit, costs $250 for properties sleeping 12 or fewer, and requires an annual fire and safety inspection. That is it. Pigeon Forge and Gatlinburg both add city-level permitting on top, but the framework is uniform, predictable, and operator-friendly.

Florida is a different story. You are dealing with a mandatory state license through DBPR, a layer of city and county rules that vary widely, and permit fees that run $500 to $750 per property in places like Destin and Pompano Beach. Coastal North Carolina has its own patchwork. For a multi-property owner, that regulatory complexity adds real cost, real friction, and real legal risk.

Simple beats complicated. Always.

The Drive-To Advantage

Here is a data point most people do not know: the Smokies are the shortest-booking-window market in the country. Our average booking window runs 10 to 70 days depending on property and season, compared to 36 to 40 days for most U.S. markets.

That is not a weakness. That is a moat.

We sit within a day’s drive of roughly 75 percent of the U.S. population. When fuel prices spike, when airfare jumps, when the economy wobbles, we actually benefit. People who cancel a flight to Florida still want to get away. They drive to Gatlinburg instead. Great Smoky Mountains National Park draws more than 12 million visitors a year, and Pigeon Forge alone pulls over 10 million. Dollywood brings in another 2 million-plus annually. The demand pipeline is not going anywhere.

Coastal markets rely heavily on fly-in guests, destination weddings, and long-planned family vacations. When discretionary spending tightens, that demand is more fragile than the Smokies drive-to base.

Acquisition Cost vs. Revenue Potential

Cabins in the Smokies range from about $250,000 at the low end to $1 million-plus for high-end luxury properties, with most well-performing cabins landing in the $450,000 to $750,000 range. Compare that to Gulf-front or beachfront coastal inventory, where you are often paying $300,000 to $1 million just for the land.

Lower entry cost, stronger occupancy, lower insurance, simpler regs, and a drive-to demand base. That is not a close comparison on a per-dollar-invested basis. That is why we continue to see out-of-state investors who originally wanted coastal end up buying in the Smokies once they run the actual numbers.

What This Means for Owners

If you are evaluating the Smokies against a coastal market, I would push you to do three things before you decide.

First, build a full P&L for both properties, not just a top-line revenue projection. Include insurance, property management, taxes, maintenance reserves, and a realistic occupancy assumption based on market data, not the rosy number a listing agent gives you.

Second, look at the worst year, not the best year. What does your cash flow look like in a hurricane year on the coast? What does it look like in a mild winter in the Smokies? Resilience is what keeps you out of trouble.

Third, pay attention to the operator you pair with. In both markets, the top-performing properties are not outpacing the market because of location alone. They are outpacing because of professional pricing, operations, and guest experience. At Haven, our portfolio generally runs 20-30% above the market in occupancy.

The Smokies are not the flashy pick. They are the durable one. And in a market where insurance is crushing coastal margins, where supply is still catching up to demand here, and where drive-to resilience keeps the phone ringing in every economic cycle, durable wins.

Considering a Smoky Mountain investment? Reach out and I will run the numbers for you, apples to apples against whatever coastal market you are comparing. No pitch, just the math.